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Critical Path to 2 July 2026 — Acquisition Pursuit

Status: INTERNAL working plan. Today: 24 June 2026. EOI closes: 2 July 2026, 16:00 (8 days). Community pledge period closes: 1 July 2026. Decision in force: the working group is pursuing acquisition via the philanthropic-deposit / exclusivity mechanism set out in the (unpublished) draft Funding Strategy.

The one-paragraph version

You cannot raise $3.15M–$3.7M in 8 days, and you cannot win the open EOI outright. The 8-day goal is position, not capital: get a “yes, and here’s how” from (1) the lawyer (is the deposit/exclusivity mechanism viable, and what’s the safe floor), (2) a donor (is there appetite for a returnable deposit), and (3) the agent/vendor (will they entertain exclusivity), and — as a fail-safe backstop — lodge a conditional EOI before the deadline so the door stays open even if the ambitious path doesn’t land in time.

The master gate

                 ┌─────────────────────────────┐
                 │  LEGAL ADVICE (#19, Topic G) │  ← send TODAY
                 │  G20: minimum safe step      │
                 └──────────────┬──────────────┘
          ┌─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┐
          ▼                     ▼                     ▼
   Donor approach (#83)   Agent approach         Conditional EOI
   returnable deposit     exclusivity            (safe-floor backstop)
          │                     │                     │
          └─────────────────────┴─────────────────────┘
                                ▼
              Exclusivity window won  →  Phase 2 real raise
              OR EOI keeps us in the process

Almost nothing external is safe to do until the lawyer answers Topic G (at least G19 “what we may say” + G20 “minimum safe step”). That is why sending the lawyer brief today, flagged urgent, is action #1.

Phase 0 — Unblock (24–26 June) · human-led, inputs prepared

Phase 1 — Position (26 June – 2 July) · gated on Phase 0 advice

Phase 2 — Convert (post-2 July, only if exclusivity/engagement won)

Real capital-stack assembly · legally-gated pledge conversion · independent valuation · building-condition + heritage-works assessment · structure registration · grant applications (Tas Community Fund closes 21 Aug). See the capital-stack model and the feasibility study §12 Stage-2 work plan. Scaffolds can be prepped now (issue #85 pledge capture, grant prep) but collect no binding capital until legal sign-off.

Hard dependencies & risks (the things that can sink the 8-day plan)

• R1 — Lawyer can’t turn it around in time. Mitigation: G20 explicitly asks for a preliminary “safe floor” by email/call; the conditional-EOI backstop (1.5) needs only that.
• R2 — No donor appetite by the deadline. Mitigation: fall back to the fallback-variant EOI; the exclusivity play can still be pursued after 2 July if the EOI keeps the door open.
• R3 — Vendor won’t entertain exclusivity (wants the EOI to run its course for all DD-invested bidders — the Funding Strategy itself flags this). Mitigation: fallback variant; position for the post-EOI scenario if the sale doesn’t complete.
• R4 — Two unregistered creditor caveats on the title complicate any deposit/contract. Mitigation: lawyer Topic F + G16; do not place a deposit without the returnability protections (G17).
• R5 — Overstatement. Any external doc claiming secured funding / willing vendor / a return → guardrail breach. Mitigation: every external artifact is lawyer-reviewed and sign-off-gated.

What stays true regardless (guardrails)

Public posture remains Stage 1 “we’re asking, not announcing.” No fixed returns, no guaranteed dividends, no repayment promises, no owner-willingness claims, no “property secured.” Pledges = intent. All money asks gated on legal/tax confirmation.