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Risk Register
Bottom Pub Co-op — Steering Committee
Internal document | Not for public release | Last updated: 2026-06-04 Likelihood and Severity: H = High, M = Medium, L = Low This register is seeded from the Assumptions Register (RISK entries) and from EPIC-level risk analysis. Cross-references to Assumptions Register entries are noted.
How to use this register
Review at every fortnightly check-in. Update status when a risk changes. When a mitigation is put in place, note what was done and who did it. When a risk materialises, record it as such — it becomes a decision log item, not just a register entry.
Add new risks as they emerge. Label any risk that came from an unverified source as [ASSUMPTION] in the description.
Register
| # | Risk | Likelihood | Severity | Mitigation | Owner | Status | AR ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R-01 | Property does not come to market, or sells to another buyer before the co-op can act. The insolvency process may conclude quickly. No formal sale has been confirmed. | H | H | Appoint authorised contact (steering pack doc 06). Monitor [insolvency firm — name withheld] publicly. Do not commit resources until property status is confirmed. | Authorised contact | Open | AR-05 |
| R-02 | Legal structure choice (distributing vs non-distributing) is made implicitly rather than explicitly on legal advice. An earlier draft blended incompatible features. | M | H | Commission legal advice on structure options before any capital design, rules draft, or public capital language is finalised. EPIC-002 acceptance criteria require explicit separation of options. | Legal/governance seat | Open | AR-14 |
| R-03 | Residual community expectations from the earlier draft’s financial promises (5% dividend, Year-15 capital return, first-mortgage security). Removed from public material but may persist in community memory. | M | M | Maintain audit page. Ensure any community meeting explicitly acknowledges what changed and why. Confirm messaging through EPIC-001 language review. | Convenor | Open | AR-22 |
| R-04 | Sociocratic governance model incompatible with CNL statutory requirements. Consent-based decisions do not substitute for the 75% special-resolution threshold required by law. | M | H | Adopt a standard elected-board governance model. Sociocratic tools (circles, consent) may apply to internal working culture but cannot override statutory voting rules. Resolve in EPIC-005. | Legal/governance seat | Open | AR-23 |
| R-05 | Hotel Theodore (Qld) failure demonstrates that community ownership does not remove hospitality cost-structure risk. Entered voluntary administration August 2023 after ~75 years. | H | H | Build stress-tested financial model (EPIC-004) with wages, energy, insurance, repairs, and management-depth scenarios. This failure case is essential honest evidence that must not be omitted from community briefings. | Finance/modelling seat | Open | AR-24 |
| R-06 | Renovation costs for a heritage-listed building are likely to exceed meeting-reported estimates ($900K–$1.2M). No independent building-condition assessment exists. Heritage BCA upgrades routinely exceed non-heritage commercial estimates. | H | H | Do not use renovation range as a budget line. Commission independent building-condition assessment as a Stage 1 / Stage 2 boundary task. Dependent on property access (requires receiver cooperation or public inspection). | Heritage/building seat | Open | AR-08, AR-10, AR-26 |
| R-07 | Zoning of the Commercial Hotel site is unconfirmed. Conflicting briefings on whether the site is General Business, Local Business, or another zone under the Huon Valley LPS. Use-class, permits, and applicable codes all depend on the operative zone. | M | H | Verify zone directly against PlanBuild Tasmania’s operative LPS map before any feasibility model is finalised. EPIC-003 and EPIC-004 both depend on this. | Heritage/building seat or Planning | Open | AR-06 |
| R-08 | Single-title assumption (pub + ~0.5 ha residential land) is unconfirmed. If the title cannot be split, the purchase price includes the residential land; if it can, the co-op might acquire the pub alone at lower cost. | M | M | Conduct title search (workplans task 1.4). Do not model capital stack until title structure is confirmed. | Legal/governance seat | Open | AR-07 |
| R-09 | The ‘81 cents in the dollar stays locally’ statistic has no confirmed primary source. Cited in community discussions but not in any current public-facing material. If it resurfaces without a source, it damages credibility. | L | M | Do not use this figure in any public document unless a primary source is identified and cited. Audit page records the gap. | EPIC-001 custodian | Open | AR-04 |
| R-10 | Castlemaine case-study misattributions persist in community memory. Meeting transcript cited $1.5M (verified: $1.95–2.0M) and “up to 5% interest” (verified: maximum 4%). Asset type also non-analogous (office/community space, not a pub). | L | M | Use only verified figures ($1.95–2.0M; 0–4% interest; asset = The Hub, not a hotel) in all documents. Don’t introduce the meeting figures in any future briefing. | EPIC-006 custodian | Open | AR-12, AR-13 |
| R-11 | Charitable status assumption built into tax modelling before ACNC confirmation. A commercial trading pub may not straightforwardly satisfy the ACNC’s all-purposes-charitable test. | L | H | Do not assume charitable status in any financial model or structure design until specialist charity-law advice is obtained. Tax model must use standard corporate rate (25%) as the base case. | Finance/modelling seat | Open | AR-28 |
| R-12 | Heritage listing level (state vs national) unconfirmed. THR Place ID 3472 is confirmed. Whether the building is also on a national list (and therefore subject to EPBC Act federal provisions) has not been verified. | L | H | Cross-check the Australian Heritage Database at environment.gov.au. Do not assume national provisions do not apply until negative result confirmed from primary source. | Heritage/building seat | Open | AR-01 |
| R-13 | Liquor licensing reform (Tasmanian Parliament, March 2025) status is uncertain. Reform proposes a new entertainment endorsement. If passed or substantially amended, the licensing pathway in current briefings may be outdated. | M | M | Confirm current legislative status before EPIC-003 memo is finalised. Do not advise on licensing structure against an outdated regulatory baseline. | Hospitality/licensing seat | Open | AR-27 |
| R-14 | Website maintenance at scale. ~15 static HTML files with duplicated nav/footer. Each structural change requires hand-editing every file. Copy-paste regressions have already occurred (fixed in May–June 2026 QA). Will compound as the site grows. | H | M | Scope Astro migration (EPIC-008). Does not block Stage 1 operations but becomes a maintenance liability if deferred past ~20 pages. | Website custodian | Open | — |
Materialised risks (moved here when a risk event occurs)
None recorded yet.
Update protocol
- Review at every fortnightly steering committee check-in.
- When a mitigation is put in place, update the Mitigation column and note date and action.
- When a risk materialises, move it to the Materialised section and open a decision log entry.
- When a risk is resolved or no longer applies, mark Status as Closed with a note.
- New risks from any source go in here with a date and [ASSUMPTION] flag if from unverified input.
- Cross-reference with the Assumptions Register whenever a risk has an AR- counterpart.